❓ What is it?
Confirmation bias is the tendency of the brain to seek and remember thoughts that align with its pre-existing set of beliefs and values.
This is because your brain was designed to seek conformity with the tribe, rather than the truth. In nomadic times, conforming helped you survive, but this is no longer the case in modern times. In most cases, conforming will give you sub-par results in work and life.
🙍♂️ Example
Consider a 5th grader named Raj. He thinks he’s bad at math – maybe his parents weren’t good at it either, and said that it’s something that runs in the family. He internalised this belief.
- He remembers the time he scored 60% on his math test, but he conveniently forgets the time he scored 90% on his homework.
- Whenever he’s practising math, and he’s unable to solve a problem, his brain says, “See? You aren’t made for this.”
- He skips harder problems because of this, and never improves. His belief became a self-fulfilling prophecy.
🤷♂️ Why does it matter?
- Confirmation bias is the root cause of most bad decisions. This makes relational conflicts worse, makes you lose out on opportunities, and wastes time and money
- Today’s algorithmically-driven social media is exceptional at serving up content to you that is most likely to align with your existing worldview and beliefs, making this bias even more challenging to fight.
- Think of all the things that you’ve changed your mind on after a conversation with a good friend that completely changed your life for the better – none of it would’ve been possible if you’d given in to confirmation bias
- Real growth and learning happen through changes in thought and action. Confirmation bias actively fights change and makes you stay the way you are
👊 How to fight it?
- Develop self-awareness
- Meditation is a practice that can help with this. It teaches you to be aware of your thoughts and catch yourself before you go down a confirmation bias-ridden thought loop.
- Seek out contradictory information
- Consume information or have conversations with people who believe the opposite of what you do before making decisions.
- Example: Before deciding to buy a house, talk to or consume content from people who are against buying a house and propose renting instead to learn their perspective. This will help you make an informed choice, even if you decide to buy a house anyway
- Objectively look at the facts, not the narrative
- Confirmation bias is a disease that festers in narrative and flounders in objectivity. Dig deeper to find facts and numbers, and you might find that your thinking is full of holes
- Example: The news says that AI will take your job and make you homeless. Instead of living the rest of your days in fear and anxiety, take a look at the actual job loss numbers and form a more informed decision. The news could be right, but it’s more than likely exaggerating the situation because that’s what sells.
🤓 Example Revisited
Let’s go back to Raj, now fully aware of how to counter confirmation bias.
- He says, “Seems like I’m only noticing the times I fail at math, but not when I succeed. Let me track my scores in reality.”
- He looks at his past scores, and turns out they are not all bad!
- He asks his friends and teachers, and they say he’s not too bad, average at worst. Some even say that they wish they were as good as him
- He starts seeing his situation more objectively – he now believes there’s nothing inherently wrong with him and that he can improve
- He works hard and starts seeing an improvement in his grades over time! He then realises it was only confirmation bias.